Market outlook

Due to our market intelligence and efficient decision making, Bdairy is able to keep its business partners up to date about the newest market trends, offer competitive pricing and act as a sparring partner for dairy procurement and sales decisions. Gathering and communicating the latest market insights, we help our partners to stay at least one step ahead. Your Bdairy market wizard is happy to provide you with a personalised approach.

Market Outlook | 10 December 2019

Knowledge is power, so every month we make a detailed analysis of the latest developments in the dairy market. This month our Commercial Manager, Sjoerd Westerbaan, tells you everything you need to know.

Skimmed Milk Powder

In November prices for SMP increased by EUR 100 – EUR 150/mt to EUR 2600 – EUR 2650/mt FCA. The main drivers behind this were the good demand worldwide and the relatively low availability from producers. This low availability was caused by good forward sales, high prices for skimmed milk concentrate and disappointing milk intake in countries like Ireland. Worldwide prices in US are trading slightly lower than in the EU, while at the same time, SMP from New Zealand is trading at higher levels.

In the near future we expect the demand to remain stable. We expect demand from the Middle East and North Africa will remain strong due to Ramadan already starting in April. The question is whether this demand can keep the prices up since milk production in Europe starts to increase while high export figures (end September +27,9% ytd) are indicating that some end users bought already more than last year and probably created some stocks. 

Bdairy expects the market to remain stable at prices between EUR 2550/mt-2600/mt FCA Eastern Europe and between EUR 2600/mt-2650/mt FCA Western Europe.

Butter

Prices for butter have been relatively stable in November at levels around EUR 3550 – 3600/mt FCA despite general expectation that butter prices would come down. The high cream prices in Europe were one of the main reasons for this. Traditionally the demand for cream is always strong in November as a lot of Christmas products are produced. The cream prices in mid-November were above EUR 5/kg based on the fat content this cream price calculates back to EUR 4100/mt FCA for butter. Therefore not a lot of butter has been produced in November as producers had a better alternative for their cream.

The good demand from exports was another reason for a stable market. Also the latest export figures show strong butter exports in September resulting in a total butter export increase of 27,1% ytd. Since EU butter was the most competitive source in the world strong export numbers are also expected for October and November.

Demand within the EU has been relatively calm. Most end users are well covered until Q1 and they expect butter prices to come down. By end November this seems to become reality, as most Christmas demand has gone and both cream and butter prices dropped as a result of that. There are more butter offers coming back in the market but the prices are still not interesting enough for most end users.

Bdairy expects butter prices to decrease further and it depends on developments in New Zealand to what extent this will happen. Last GDT showed a price drop of 5% and if this continues EU butter will probably follow.

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